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中国人口红利悄然变化,如果三胎开放,中国会发生什么
2020-01-08 01:08   来源:  www.shortstopbbq.com   评论:0 点击:

中国人口红利悄然变化,如果三胎开放,中国会发生什么作为全世界人口最多的国家,中国除了自身拥有不俗的发

作为全世界人口最多的国家,中国除了自身拥有不俗的发展潜力外,人口基数带来的人口红利也是中国近几十年能够经济腾飞的原因。不过,自从计划生育后,中国的人口结构出现了很大的改变,虽然控制住了人口的飞速增长,但控制人口的产生的弊端,仅仅过了两代人的时间便暴露无遗。

As the most populous country in the world, in addition to its own development potential, the demographic dividend brought by the population base is also the reason why China's economy has taken off in recent decades. However, since family planning, the country's population structure has changed a lot, although the rapid growth of the population has been controlled, but the shortcomings of population control, only two generations later exposed.

最直接的问题就是人口老龄化问题和结婚率日渐下滑,自计划生育后,中国的家庭组成大部分都成为了“421”模式,夫妻二人要养活自己的同时,还要照顾父母和孩子,压力很大。以往还有兄弟姐妹一起赡养,但现在赡养的义务全部落到了一个人身上,导致压力倍增。

The most immediate problem is the aging of the population and the declining marriage rate. Since family planning, most of china's family composition has become a \"421\" model. In the past there have been siblings together to support, but now the obligation to support all fell on a person, resulting in increased pressure.

国家看到了人口结构的改变后,从11年开放双独二胎,13年放宽成单独二胎,再到15年全面放开二胎,可以说是想要减缓老龄化问题。但从近几年新生儿数量看,除了刚开放二胎的16年有所增长外,17、18年均出现了下降,18甚至可以说是断崖式下降,而据说19年的情况也不容乐观。有专家预测,如果社会压力不减小的话,不出3年,中国新生儿甚至可能突破1000万大关。

After seeing the change of the population structure, the State opened two separate twins in 11, and it was relaxed into two separate ones in 13, and then released the second child completely in 15 years, which can be said to slow down the aging problem. However, according to the number of newborns in recent years, apart from the 16-year increase in the newly opened second child, there has been a decrease in 17-18 years, 18 can be said to be said to be a cliff decline, and the situation in 19 years is said to be not optimistic. Experts predict that if social pressure does not decrease, in less than three years, China's newborns may even break through 10 million.

那么有小伙伴可能会问了,那如果开放三胎四胎或者干脆完全放开,那么会不会减缓人口老龄化的趋势呢?其实从二胎政策逐渐放宽的过程来看,基本上都没能达到预期,所以按照当下的情况来看,即使开放了三胎四胎,可能大概率和二胎刚开放那样,产生短时间的热度,但可能没几年就回归正常了。

So some partners may ask, if the opening of a three-child, four-child, or simply let go, will it slow the aging trend? In fact, from the gradual relaxation of the second-child policy process, basically did not meet expectations, so according to the current situation, even if the opening of three-child four-child, probably the big probability and the second-child just opened, produce a short period of heat, but may return to normal in a few years.

归根结底,其实还是许多外在因素导致的。结婚成本高、房价过高、孩子的教育成本高等都成为了许多家庭生孩子路上的拦路虎,让很多家庭想生却又不敢生,十分的无奈。外在因素造成了国民的生育意愿低迷,结果就是18年的出生率创下48年来的最低记录,仅为%。

In the final analysis, there are many external factors. High cost of marriage, high housing prices, high cost of education for children have become the road block for many families to have children, so that many families want to have but dare not have, very helpless. External factors have contributed to the nation's low fertility aspirations, resulting in an 18-year birth rate hitting a 48-year low of only%.

当然,开放二胎的话,从某种程度上也会改变家庭的购房需求,很大可能会从两室换成三室甚至更多。正如上文提到的,住房的需求增加,房价自然会上涨,这也是房价高居不下的原因之一。但现如今,出生率全面下降的情况下,房屋的重要性可能会逐渐下降,所以未来几年的房价,会因为生育率的下降,出现降温也说不定。

Of course, the opening of a second child, to some extent, will also change the demand for home purchase, is likely to change from two rooms to three or more. As mentioned above, housing demand increases and house prices naturally rise, which is one of the reasons why house prices are too high. But now, with the birth rate falling all over the world, the importance of housing may gradually decline, so housing prices in the next few years will probably be cooled by the decline in fertility.


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